Mustafa Fahs wrote his article entitled “South Lebanon and the Difficult Possibilities,” in which the writer warns of an unprecedented escalation taking place on the southern front, amid internal and external fears that the situation will slide towards the worse, that is, towards an open confrontation - which appears to be possible - or comprehensive - which is still unlikely - what Between Israel and Hezbollah.

The writer says that the leaders of Israel agreed on the war, as is said, but so far they have not agreed on its date, and they also disagree on its size. As for the Lebanese side, where the state does not have the right to decide on war and peace, the recent visit of Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri to Beirut did not... Its interior was not what it appeared. On its surface, the head of Iranian diplomacy affirmed the adherence of his government and the allied Lebanese government to rejecting escalation or sliding towards the war that the enemy wants. But its interior, that is, in the closed corridors with those concerned with the confrontation, appears that the situation was different, and that the possibility of war had become possible for reasons related to the future of the settlement. In Gaza, Lebanon and the region.

The writer adds that most analyzes of the Israeli position or approval of the war depend on the fact that the Israeli military leadership, which is busy in Gaza, is unable to open a second, expanded front. That is, the Israeli army, burdened by the Gaza war, is unable to fight two wars at the same time, so its leadership prefers to continue. The confrontation in the north in its current form until the resolution of the Gaza battle.

The writer says that after the seventh of last October, Israel is carrying out a systematic process of destruction of Lebanese villages south of the Litani River, and continues the process of assassinating Hezbollah fighters, who numbered 342 fighters, without resorting to direct clashes, and it also continues to destroy the party’s military structure. South and north of the river, reaching the farthest border point in the city of Hermel in northeastern Lebanon.

The writer believes that the Israeli desire, at the political level and at the level of public opinion, to carry out a major military operation against Lebanon exists. This possible operation, to some extent, could be an open war and not a comprehensive one, meaning that Israel is expanding the scope of its operations on all Lebanese lands and is striking targets in the capital. Beirut, but do not attack Beirut, as this will lead to a complex military, security and economic situation and will cause the disruption of public life in most Lebanese cities. The party will respond to this by expanding the scope of its strikes into the “Palestinian interior” and using more new heavy weapons, especially since it has been using it for some time. Surface-to-air missiles against Israeli aviation, and this is one of the most important indicators of its readiness for all possibilities.

Mustafa Fahs concludes his article by saying that Washington expresses its concern about the situation on the northern front and is exerting pressure to reduce the escalation, and does not hide its communication with Tehran to prevent it, but it does not show actual seriousness in pressuring Israel with the aim of containing it, and it also failed to convince the Lebanese to disengage between Beirut and And Gaza. Therefore, attention is turning to Biden’s plan to end the war on Gaza, which both parties welcomed, but with their reservations about many of the details, which may be used, especially by Netanyahu, to obstruct the second phase of Biden’s plan, which will lead to the collapse of the truce and the return of fighting.