Middle East to Russia and China: C’mon in. We are Open for Business

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin seems to be progressing in the unlikely path of establishing stronger ties between Russia and the nations of the Middle East. President Obama, on the other hand, seems to be progressing in the unlikely path of weakening US ties with those nations. The Russian path was unlikely because Putin is helping Assad, Iran (both are not considered friendly by most Arab countries) and is starting from very little diplomatic capital in his previous ties to the region. The US path was unlikely as well because President Obama is opposed to Assad and Iran’s expansion and he started from a very strong historical surplus in trust and a solid alliance with most of the region’s countries. While one is building his capital actively, the other is squandering his in earnest.

But to be fair to the President, squandering US capital in the Middle East started before his terms. It was the Iraq war coupled with absurd strategies about changing regional political regimes which initially opened the road to a steady loss of US influence in the Middle East. President Obama did not do anything to stop the cascade, other than providing master pieces in the art of wordsmithing in his speech in Cairo and through avoiding certain terms like war on terror or Jihadist terrorist or whatever. In fact, he exacerbated the process of US loss of influence through a chain of unbelievable mistakes that the President does not even want to admit, not even one of them.

When the President started his first term, he gave a speech in Cairo to change the region’s perceptions about US policy. Now, while he is at the end of his second term, he should question himself if he indeed did what he hoped for, or if he, in fact, made those perceptions worse. Instead, he blames the region’s regimes for his utter failure in improving US stand in the Middle East.

It is actually kind of funny to hear that the President was more focused on East Asia than the Middle East. First, East Asia, where the President says he is going, is coming to the Middle East. And US strategic posture in East Asia did not qualitatively change in substantial way compared to what it was say 10 years ago. Even signing the nuclear deal with Iran did not make that nation any closer to Washington. It rather made Washington farer from both the Middle East and East Asia.

Iran is currently emerging as an energy powerhouse with Russia and China for pipelines and future projects in Central Asia. It is coordinating with Russia in Syria, Afghanistan and the former Soviet countries of Central Asia. It is discussing westward gas paths with Moscow. And it is emerging as a powerful pillar of Russian and Chinese strategies in both the Middle East and Central Asia.

What did President Obama have to say about Russia’s military intervention in Syria, which was closely coordinated with Tehran? He described it as a beginning of a “quagmire”. But he surprised everyone when he decided, just few weeks later, to coordinate with Russia in this very quagmire. Maybe he will come out now saying that he did that on purpose to help Putin drawn himself. There is always an excuse and the language is rich with all kinds of words.

And China is also coming out of East Asia and going to the Middle East, while President Obama is travelling in the opposite directions. It is obvious that the Chinese and the Russians are too dumb to see what President Obama sees.

The best defense of the President’s strategy is that it was a reflection of the US stretching itself thin during the Bush years. The US needed few years to regain what was wasted in economic, military and diplomatic muscles during that period. But how about Putin? He did not have much of muscles compared to the post-Bush US that Obama inherited, and after years of total loss of directions in Moscow.

With limited capital, Putin embarked on his “quagmire” that multiplied his global influence and which was tempting enough to lure President Obama as well, and the Chinese are building their own capital from almost no diplomatic presence in the Middle East in the past.

Beijing just appointed a special envoy to Syria. Xie Xiaoyan is a career diplomat who served as ambassador to Iran. The decision came after President Xi Jinping’s high profile visit to the Middle East last January. China is positioning itself to be in the right spot once the conflict in Syria ends.

But why going to East Asia, where US enjoyed always very strong and stable alliances, should necessitate the “do nothing” approach of the President in the Middle East? The answer was almost expressed by the President himself who hinted in a recent interview that he is not convinced there is something worth defending in the region. He does not like the political structures there. He does not feel compelled to be an ally to regimes he does not like.

Well, the Chinese and the Russians are running to replace him. The decline of U.S. influence in the Middle East will lead to the formation of new alliances able to address the regional security and economic challenges. This moment may go in the history of the post Second World War as a transformational point in the global balance of power.

The Chinese President was welcomed warmly in Egypt and Iran. Several mega projects are being studied now between the two countries and China. This may usher in a new phase in Chinese-Middle Eastern presence to the benefit of both sides. Egyptians, in particular, are grateful. China offered considerable direct investments in a moment when others were pressuring Cairo or turning a cold shoulder to Egypt.

And Mr. Xiaoyan, the Chinese special envoy, has his objective clear. In explaining the envoy’s mission Xiao Xian, head of Middle East studies at Yunnan University, said China should get more involved in resolving the crisis especially now that the situation in Syria was becoming clearer. “In my view, China should have participated more a long time ago. If we don’t do it now, it will be too late”, he said.

He urged Beijing to engage more in peace talks, post-war reconstruction and discussions over the refugee crisis in keeping with its image as a “responsible great power”. “Other countries in the Middle East, such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all wish China to exert more influence”.

Time to warn the Chinese: A quagmire is waiting for you guys. Be as smart as others and go to East Asia.