The election could deliver another hung parliament. Here's what that means

20/05/2022

(See translation in Arabic section)

Sydney – M E TIMES Int’l: It's the nightmare scenario for many politicians out on the campaign trail: An inconclusive result that sends the major parties into brutal negotiations with a handful of new crossbench MPs.

If there is no clear majority after the ballots are counted, the outcome of the election is deemed a 'hung parliament'.

That's one where either the Coalition or Labor must seek an agreement with the rump of a minor party or any independent MPs that will be sitting between them in order to govern.

For the Coalition, losing even a single seat would require them to seek a deal with crossbench MPs to govern in a minority government.

While polling has pointed towards a decisive Labor victory, that could also result in a hung parliament if the swing doesn't go their way in a few key seats.

The major parties obviously want to govern in their own right and will often portray a minority government as a poor outcome.

However, there are plenty of people who believe hung parliaments can be a good thing for the country.

What happens in a hung parliament?

In the 151-seat House of Representatives, Labor or the Coalition (the name for the alliance of Liberal and National MPs) must win at least 76 seats to govern in their own right.

Any less and they must seek the support of MPs outside their party.

The election began with eight lower house MPs on the crossbench, following the resignation of George Christensen from the LNP.

Usually, that means guaranteeing what is called "confidence and supply" from those MPs, a promise that they will support the government in any votes on its legitimacy and the passage of budget bills to allow the government to continue functioning.

The concern for governments running the country as a minority is that every controversy is heightened as a threat to their continuing existence, as the loss of a single MP could spell the end of their term in power.

Back in 2010, a hung parliament resulted in Labor striking a formal agreement with the Greens that required weekly meetings with the party to discuss the government's legislative agenda, as well as undertakings with three independents in exchange for their support. By political reporter Jake Evans

‘Dark day’: Catholic Archbishop responds to ‘right to die’ laws

The Catholic Archbishop of Sydney has lashed the decision to allow terminally ill people to have the right to choose to end their life in NSW, after the state joined the rest of Australia to pass the law.

The voluntary assisted dying bill passed the third reading the upper house by 23 to 15 votes, before being officially endorsed by the lower house on Thursday afternoon.

The laws are expected to be introduced within 18 months.

NSW is the last state in the country to introduce the laws, which give people with terminal illness that will cause prolonged suffering at the end of life the option to die a peaceful death.

Dying with Dignity NSW president Penny Hackett said the reform was “well overdue”.

“This is an historic moment for people in NSW who have been campaigning for decades so that terminally ill people don’t have to endure prolonged and unbearable suffering in their final days of life,” Ms Hackett said.

“This bill will give an immense sense of hope and relief to many people with a terminal illness who simply want to take back some control at the end of their life.”

The bill, drafted by Sydney MP Alex Greenwich, passed the lower house late last year, but has since undergone amendments in the upper house.

The laws have an 18 month implementation period.

“Sadly, it will be too late for many terminally ill people who are suffering right now,” Ms Hackett said.

However, Catholic Archbishop of Sydney, Anthony Fisher, was saddened the bill had passed and called it a “truly dark day” for NSW.

“I am deeply saddened that the Voluntary Assisted Dying Bill 2021 has passed the NSW Parliament,” he said in a statement.

“The disturbing nature of this legislation is compounded by the way the debate over amendments was conducted. All amendments put forward by those who would seek to make this deadly regime even a little bit safer were rejected.

“That no meaningful amendments were accepted speaks to a ‘winner takes all’ approach by the proponents of this bill and reveals an ugliness that has invaded our politics. This does not bode well for the protection of our most vulnerable citizens.

“The 57th parliament of NSW will be remembered as having the shameful record of passing two of the most anti-life pieces of legislation that exist in Australia, and indeed around the world.

“If a civilisation is to be judged by how it treats its weakest members, the NSW parliament has failed miserably and has set a dark and dangerous path for all posterity, determining a new and disturbing definition of what it means to be human.

“I thank those few members in both houses of parliament who spoke out against this bill, often in the face of disdain and disparagement from their parliamentary colleagues, from pro-euthanasia lobby groups and from the media.

“I also thank members of the medical and legal professions, religious leaders of many faiths and pro-life groups who lobbied on behalf of the sick and elderly and their right to receive real choice at the end of life.

Pauline Hanson tests positive to COVID-19 days before federal election

One Nation Party leader Pauline Hanson has tested positive to COVID-19 days out from the federal election.

The Senator revealed the news on radio this morning.

"I'm up to s***," Senator Hanson told KIIS radio, when asked how she was going.

"I've got COVID," she said, while coughing.

The 67-year-old said she believed she caught the virus while campaigning in Western Australia.

"I travel the five states around the whole of Australia campaigning but I go to the most locked-down state, last week, to Western Australia, and I got it," she said.

Ms Hanson, who is standing for re-election as a Queensland senator on Saturday, did not say how she knew she had contracted it in Western Australia.

Senator Hanson said she has not been vaccinated and her symptoms have not been too bad.

"I've told you that before before, I'm not getting vaccinated," she told the Kyle and Jackie O Show.

"Guess what? I haven't been in hospital, I'm still kicking, I'm alive, I'm fine.

House prices to fall up to 25pc

If the RBA relies on its worthless forecasts, prepare for a truly massive draw-down in house prices.

Since late last year, we’ve had several contrarian views. First, US markets needed to price in the Federal Reserve lifting its cash rate to 2.5-3 per cent. At the time, markets were pricing in a tiny 1.5 per cent terminal Fed cash rate. They’ve now lifted that to around 2.9 per cent.

A second forecast was that the US 10-year government bond yield needed to rise above 3.2 per cent. Markets strongly disagreed, pricing in just a 1.3 per cent yield. Yet four months later, the US 10-year yield is above 3 per cent.

House prices will correct as rates go up. 

A third expectation was that US equities would mean-revert back to normal cyclically-adjusted, price/earnings multiples. This required a 30-60 per cent drawdown in US stocks. Since that time, the S&P 500 has fallen about 14 per cent while the Nasdaq is off 24 per cent. We estimate that the S&P 500 has another 20-35 per cent to go. The Nasdaq should fall much further.

A fourth view was that while Aussie house prices would continue climbing for a while, they would have to correct 15-25 per cent after the first 100 basis points of cash rate hikes, which we thought would start in mid-2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia obliged recently with its first 25-basis-point increase. It was a classically jejune Martin Place: doing the one thing nobody on the planet expected just to prove everyone wrong.

Markets and economists thought no increase, 15 basis points or 40 basis points were all possible. Desperate to claim a supercilious victory, the RBA lifted its target rate 25 basis points.

Kudos to The Australian columnist Terry McCrann for bravely calling early increases ahead of everyone else, and to CBA’s Gareth Aird for generally being ahead of the curve.

The RBA’s governor, Philip Lowe, then gave an impressive press conference, where he delivered a mea culpa on the central bank’s woeful forecasting track record, describing it as “embarrassing” and something that had to be fixed. This extremely rare bout of humility was way overdue but nonetheless carried an enormous contradiction.

House price will force RBA to pause

Whether the RBA wants to admit it or not, its interest rate decisions will be heavily influenced by the direction of house prices, which after years of uber-cheap money have never been more inflated. This will be amplified by two dynamics.

First, there are hundreds of billions of dollars worth of circa 2 per cent fixed-rate loans that will roll into variable rate products carrying much higher interest rates in the next two years.

Second, households are much more sensitive to interest rate changes: our household debt-to-income ratio is sitting around 186 per cent, in line with all-time highs.

This column projects that the RBA will likely be forced – if it acts prudently – to pause its monetary policy tightening process after the first 100-150 basis points of hikes as a result of the start of a record 15-25 per cent decline in Aussie home values (as we outlined in October last year).

It will also be held back by banks unilaterally lifting mortgage rates out of cycle as their funding costs normalise. Put differently, banks will do some of the heavy lifting on interest rates for the RBA.

Potential losses of $1.5trn

Since the total value of residential real estate is worth $9.9 trillion, the RBA will likely impose losses on households worth some $1.5 trillion (assuming just a 15 per cent draw-down). Superannuation will also shrink in value as listed equities, infrastructure, property and private equity are smashed.

Banks have already been forced to lift their three-year home loan rates from 1.98 per cent 12 months ago to 4.5 per cent. Non-bank lenders are likewise wearing an overdue repricing in their cost of funding via a sharp increase in the credit spreads on their residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS).

What makes the RBA’s history of housing misses so odd is that its own staff have actually developed an outstanding model of the market, which we have refined and used ourselves. While Martin Place has been historically insouciant to the insights rendered by this analysis, which explain the 2012-17 and 2020-22 booms, it did unfurl the “Saunders-Tulip” model for the first time in its latest Financial Stability Review.

New record low unemployment rate for NSW

The NSW unemployment rate has reached a record low for the second time this year, falling 0.4 percentage points to 3.5 per cent in April.

It is the state’s lowest monthly unemployment rate since current records began in 1978 according to the latest ABS data, following on from the previous record of 3.7 per cent in February.

About 19,300 extra people were employed in full-time jobs in April in NSW and hours worked in NSW also bounced back by 2.5 per cent.

NSW Treasurer Matt Kean said today’s outstanding results came after a decade of strong economic management by the NSW Coalition Government and is a clear indication of the underlying strength of the State’s economy.

“The NSW labour market is in an extremely strong position having reached a record low unemployment rate for the second time in the past few months which is significantly lower than the national average,” Mr Kean said.

“The NSW Government has provided effective, tailored support measures to steer this State through bushfires, floods and COVID outbreaks, to come out even stronger through these difficult times.”

An additional 93,200 people are employed in NSW compared to pre-COVID levels, and another 51,600 compared to pre-Delta levels.

Helping young people get back in the game

Disengaged young people will benefit from the expansion of a NSW Government program which aims to connect them with education, training and employment.

Minister for Education and Early Learning Sarah Mitchell said the highly successful Get Back in the Game program is being expanded to support young people in Western Sydney, South Western Sydney, the Illawarra, Shoalhaven, Hunter and Central Coast.

“More than 7,000 young people have discovered areas of interest, developed career plans, and either engaged in work or training or headed back to complete their secondary school education, since the program started in 2016,” Ms Mitchell said.

“This expansion will further the program’s reach and help more young people finish school, access training and get a job.”

Seven community-based youth support organisations will deliver specialist support services to young people aged 15-19 through the program.

Get Back in the Game will focus on young people who are still at school but struggling to engage with education as well as those who have left school but are finding it difficult to make effective transitions into training or employment.

Minister for Skills and Training Alister Henskens said the program helps young people gain employability skills, identify career pathways and establish valuable connections with employers and industry.

Retired Judge Thomas Bathurst appointed to conduct investigation into the case of Kathleen Megan Folbigg

NSW Attorney General Mark Speakman said in a press release that, based on his recommendation, Her Excellency, the Hon Margaret Beazley AC QC, Governor of NSW, has directed a second inquiry into the convictions of Ms Kathleen Megan Folbigg.

The Governor has appointed recently retired Chief Justice, the Hon Thomas Bathurst AC QC, to conduct the inquiry.

In 2003, Ms Folbigg was convicted of the homicides of her children Caleb, Patrick, Sarah and Laura following a trial by jury. On appeal, the Court of Criminal Appeal imposed a total sentence of 30 years’ imprisonment with a non-parole period of 25 years.

In addition, this matter has seen several unsuccessful appeals to the Court of Criminal Appeal, a number of applications to the High Court, the 2018-2019 inquiry, and in relation to that inquiry’s findings, a discontinued application for special leave to the High Court following a judicial review by the Court of Appeal.

The deaths of Caleb, Patrick, Sarah and Laura have caused immeasurable and continuing grief to their family and the community. I have written to Ms Folbigg’s legal representatives to advise them of the decision. I have also again spoken with their father Craig Folbigg to inform him about today’s decision; I am deeply sorry that yet again he and his family will have to re-visit their nightmare.

Since the inquiry in 2018-2019 conducted by the Hon Reginald Blanch AM QC, a fresh petition has sought the exercise of the Royal prerogative of mercy to grant Ms Folbigg a pardon.

The petition refers to developments in genetic science in respect of the CALM2 genetic mutation found in Sarah and Laura Folbigg. Among other grounds, the petition argues this has provided an updated cause of death for both Sarah and Laura.

$40.9 Million to improve road safety at NSW schools

The Australian and New South Wales governments are investing more than $40.9 million to improve road infrastructure at schools across the Sydney metropolitan area, making the trip to school safer for thousands of children.

This funding is supporting the fast roll-out to at least 250 projects, keeping students and families safe while creating jobs and economic opportunities for businesses and suppliers.

Upgrades will include installing raised zebra crossings and pedestrian islands, as well as improving the visibility of key crossings in busy and high-risk areas.

Planning for these important safety upgrades is underway and all projects are expected to be finished by June 2023.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Development Barnaby Joyce said the infrastructure upgrades will help pedestrians and motorists share the roads safely.

“Every child and family should feel safe going to school,” the Deputy Prime Minister said.

“These important upgrades will help to keep some of our most vulnerable road users safe and make the busy pick-up and drop-off times easier for parents, children and the wider community.”

“Only the Coalition Government understands the importance of delivering the road infrastructure Australians need. This latest investment will create new jobs and help drive our economic growth.”

NSW Minister for Metropolitan Roads Natalie Ward said road infrastructure at schools in metropolitan areas will receive substantial upgrades, with more than $40.9 million going towards at least 250 projects.

“This program will help make our roads safer for not just children but also their parents, carers and school communities,” Mrs Ward said.

Park’Npay technology goes live in Woollahra

Drivers living in or visiting Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs can now park with more convenience, thanks to the NSW Government’s popular Park’nPay technology going live in the Woollahra Council area.

Minister for Customer Service and Digital Government Victor Dominello said since its launch in 2019, Park’nPay had been a game changer for motorists, with more than 100,000 app downloads so far.

“We are excited to put the power of parking back into the hands of the thousands of people who live, work and travel in Woollahra by giving them a seamless parking experience,” Mr Dominello said.

“Whether they are heading to the shops, or catching up with friends at a café or restaurant, drivers will be able to use the app to pay for more than 500 spaces in these areas.

“They can also top-up through their phone and avoid parking fines, as well as pay for the exact amount of time they need the space.

“This is about making life easier for drivers, with more than 92 per cent giving the technology the thumbs up. I would like to sincerely thank Woollahra Council for coming on board and supporting this important technology.”

Check in assessments help students catch up 

Results from the NSW Government’s innovative check in assessments have given thousands of teachers the information they need to help students catch up following COVID disruptions in 2020 and 2021. 

More than 95 per cent of schools used the assessments in Term 4 2021, with the results showing numeracy in primary school students has improved since the learning from home period ended, while secondary school students are taking longer to recover.

The tests reflect the NSW Government's evidence based approach to education, with the online assessments delivering results back to teachers within 48 hours along with teaching advice on how to help students recover in the identified areas of concern.

Minister for Education and Early Learning Sarah Mitchell said the tests were designed in the midst of COVID to help teachers identify and support the learning areas their students were

struggling in after the impacts of the pandemic.

“Our teachers are using the check in assessment data to identify individual students who need extra help, and then implementing the targeted literacy and numeracy supports suggested as part of the check in results,” Ms Mitchell said.

 “The NSW Government's $720 million COVID Intensive Learning Support Program is also making use of the check in data, to boost learning through targeted small group tuition which has already helped 265,000 students since it was as first introduced a year ago.”

Careers NSW unlocking opportunities for job seekers in Western Sydney

More than 80,000 people have been supported with free career guidance and advice through Careers NSW since it launched last year, with residents of South West Sydney responding in droves.

Canterbury-Bankstown and Camden local government areas are leading the way with the largest take up of appointments for advice on careers through the program.

Minister for Skills and Training Alister Henskens said National Careers Week (16-22 May) is an opportunity for people to explore how the NSW Government can help them get a first job, a new job or a better job.

“Careers NSW is a whole-of-life, one-stop-shop for everyone in the state to help people unlock their potential by empowering them to make informed decisions about their career path,” Mr Henskens said.

“The NSW Government is working hard to turbocharge the take-up of vocational education and training by investing in fee-free and low fee training courses, which aim to get people into jobs and address skills shortages across the state.

“There are also incredible opportunities in NSW for people in STEM, with our innovation ecosystem widely regarded as one of the best in the world.