‘Staggering level of deaths’: Russia readies for war in bloody Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

OCTOBER 29, 2020

A regional conflict is rapidly reaching an “irreversible point” where major military powers including Russia will be sucked in which is almost certain to lead to even more bloodshed, a veteran diplomat has warned.

As many as 5000 people are now thought to have perished in four weeks’ worth of fighting between the central Asian nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Which country has possession of a thin strip of land could be all that stops the battle from becoming a far wider war. Now Moscow is reported to have made its first clear move at picking a side.

The two fractious neighbours are in a deadly squabble centred on the mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh. It is internationally recognised as being part of Azerbaijan but has been governed for decades by ethnic Armenians.

Armed conflict broke out in late September after Azerbaijan, widely thought to be backed with weapons and manpower from Turkey, began shelling the disputed territory in an effort to recapture it.

Since then, both sides have been accused of bombing positions and cities across the front line.

Diplomatic efforts have, so far, proved fruitless.

A Russian brokered ceasefire was broken within a day; a further agreement to down arms collapsed within hours; last week a US backed deal to stop the fighting only lasted a few minutes.

Carey Cavanaugh is a former US ambassador who led peace efforts in 2001 over exactly the same intractable dispute. He said if current talks involving Turkey, Russia, the US and France did not achieve real results the fighting was almost certain to escalate.

“Outside nations, specifically Turkey and Russia may well then enter the fray,” he wrote in a piece for the Financial Times.

“The result would be a potentially staggering level of death, destruction and suffering”.

Already, Iran, which borders both warring nations, has warned that if any more shells inadvertently land on its territory it will be forced to become involved.

Historically both Christian Armenians and Muslim Turks from Azerbaijan called Nagorno-Karabakh home.

However, since a war in the 1990s that killed 30,000, most of the area has been populated and governed by ethnic Armenians who call it the Republic of Artsakh.

Not a single nation recognises Artsakh – not even Armenia – but it is supported by the Armenian government.

For decades, an uneasy truce prevailed. But no longer.

Mr Cavanaugh has said the key reason the conflict has flared up once again is Turkey’s backing of Azerbaijan. Its weapons have helped it claw back some land.

“This external support and relative military success has generated broad public support in Azerbaijan for the war effort.”

SPIRALLING OUT OF CONTROL

On Wednesday, Azerbaijan accused Armenia of killing 21 people and wounding dozens in a missile strike near the frontier, the deadliest reported attack on civilians in a month of fighting over the disputed region.

Armenia has denied carrying out the attack, the second in two days that Azerbaijan says killed civilians in the Barda district.

Yerevan, in turn, accused Azerbaijani forces of deadly new strikes on civilian areas of the disputed region, as both sides claim the other is targeting civilians after weeks of fierce frontline clashes, reported news agency AFP.

The International Committee for the Red Cross said the shelling of urban areas was “appalling”.

“These latest exchanges signal that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict risks spiralling out of control,” said the ICRC’s regional director Martin Schüepp.