Jul. 12, 2019

DUBAI: A surprise UAE troop drawdown in war-torn Yemen aims to restore the Gulf country’s reputation, but may strain ties with key ally Saudi Arabia at a time of heightened tensions with Iran, experts say.

“The political, reputational and operational risks Abu Dhabi incurred in Yemen stood in no relation to the anticipated benefits,” said Andreas Krieg, a professor at King’s College in London.

The UAE has been a key player in the Arab coalition that intervened in Yemen in March 2015.

The two sides have fought to a stalemate, and several rounds of United Nations-sponsored talks, the last held in Sweden in December, have failed to implement any deal to end the war.

Yet in a sudden move Monday, the UAE announced it was redeploying and reducing its troops mainly from northern Yemen.

In four years of combat, the UAE has deployed thousands of troops and helped train some 90,000 Yemeni soldiers.

One factor driving the drawdown may have been hopes of limiting the damage to the UAE over its role in Yemen, with both the Arab coalition and the Houthis standing accused of war crimes by human rights groups.

The reputation of the Emirates, a staunch U.S. ally which aims to be seen as “a liberal U.S. partner in the region,” has “taken a severe hit as of late,” Krieg said.

Amnesty said last year that human rights violations in a string of Emirati-run prisons in Yemen could amount to war crimes - a report that Abu Dhabi has vehemently rejected.

Increasing regional differences with Iran may also have helped seal the troop reduction, Middle East expert James Dorsey said.

“If that were to erupt into a military conflict, then the Emirates alongside Saudi Arabia is going to be a battlefield. I think the Emiratis want to be ready for that, even though they don’t want a military conflict with Iran,” he added.

“Tensions with Iran were not the impetus for the withdrawal, but they have certainly complicated it,” said Elizabeth Dickinson, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group think tank. “Abu Dhabi has been alarmed by the escalations in recent months and sought to limit the risks to itself.”

Experts, however, agree that while the decision to reduce troops may strain ties with Saudi Arabia, it was unlikely to severely affect their strategic regional alliance. “Behind closed doors, the Saudis aren’t going to be happy, but I don’t think that either Saudi Arabia or the Emirates have an interest in a public rift,” Dorsey said.

The two countries have too much in common to let differences over Yemen tarnish their relationship, he added.